In the medium term (viz. 2004-2010), the country’s mining industry will be facing three scenarios that can determine the general direction, configuration and performance of the local big mining sector vis-à-vis the dictates of the transnational-dominated global mineral industry on the one hand, and the imperatives of national sustainable development on the other. The three scenarios are:

• Mineral Action Plan (MAP)- Animated Scenario marked by the proliferation of overlapping EPAs, MPSAs and FTAAs gobbling up the mineral-rich ancestral domain claims; the unbridled environ- mental despoliation by large - scale mining projects; the breakdown of social, economic and cultural cohesion of the affected communities; the worsening conflict between the transnational min- ing companies and its local partners versus indig- enous peoples and the rural poor; the rise to power of a mining czar who will ensure the unhampered TNC mining operation in the country; the ultimate turning of the national government and its un- leashing of military force against a resurgent Fili- pino people; by means of a pronunciamiento, the headship of central government is conferred to a military-backed figurehead; the destruction of the legal anti-mining opposition and the inca- pacitation of its leaders; the outbreak of all-out civil war fomented by the transnationals and their cohorts in their home countries; and the subse- quent occupation of the country by foreign troops and mercenaries to protect TNC mining interests.
• No-To -Mining- Animated Scenario – due to overwhelming public pressure and concomitant force majeure or Act of God, the Mining Act is repealed and the MAP aborted; the national government suddenly engages in “NGO speak” and sidelines its pro-big mining bias; the rise to power of an ayatollah of sustainable development and the establishment of a mutawwa for environmental protection to oversee government environmental agencies; the subsisting and pending EPs, MPSAs and FTAAs are discarded and many transnationals pack up; the proliferation of gold-rush mining, toxic- chemical gold ore processing, gold smuggling, and underground/ black market mining industry in the hinterlands; the remaining mining transnationals and their cohorts are up in arms, and some rogue transnationals set up their mining enclaves having sovereign powers; as there is widespread economic and political impasse due to the central government’s default and collapse, the country gets dismembered by ideological, religious, ethnic, class, and similar forms of strife.
• The Middle Ground Scenario – the State, the whole mining industry and its market, and civil society enter into a common agreement to develop, protect and promote a national mineral industry based on the Filipino citizenry’s equitable access and use of the country’s mineral resources, and the equitable sharing of the costs and benefits among the basic sectors of Philippine society; the mining industry’s small-scale, large- scale and associated/subsidiary sectors – formal and informal – are guided, organized and mobilized by national government in order to generate and sustain the domestically sourced investment, locally developed technology, and Filipino management expertise, instead of merely depending on foreign capital, equipment, goods and services; the State allows the indigenous peoples to develop the mineral resources in their ancestral domain claims, in cooperation with the basic sectors of society and the responsible players of the mineral industry; the Filipino nation links up with the mineral-rich developing nations of the South in engaging the industrialized nations of the North – to build and sustain a common future for all.

In summary, the Philippine mining industry’s scenarios (focused on its large-scale sector) are depicted in Chart 3 below.

In terms of the potential impacts of given mining parameters, the three scenarios contingent upon the present state of the Philippine mining should be assessed. The factors affecting the coming into play of these scenarios should also be studied. In the process, appropriate development strategies and safeguards vis-à-vis the Philippine mining industry (focusing on its large - scale sector) should be formulated and recommended for the benefit of the country and the people.