by Ramon Faustino M. Sales, Jr., Ph.D.

Abstract

      Like any other island state, the Philippines, being an archipelagic country, is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly sea-level rise. These impacts, which include tropical cyclones, increased flooding, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion and drought, will exacerbate the current effects of environmental degradation on the urban coastal communities of the case study area, Cavite City, Philippines.

      Using a participatory research approach, over a period of three decades, the study examines the risks and impacts of current climate variability and temporary sea-level rise (SLR) (i.e., high tide) on the case study area. It also identifies the vulnerable socio-economic groups among the coastal population, and examines their current adaptation strategies, both autonomous and planned, as well as their adaptive capacity to cope with these risks and impacts. Likewise, an assessment of the key factors that affect their vulnerability to such impacts is presented. Under a future scenario of a 1-meter accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR), the study also examines its potential impacts on the urban coastal population and ecosystem.

      In the context of poverty reduction and sustainable development, this study suggests a local operational framework for mainstreaming community-based adaptation strategies and actions into integrated coastal management (ICM). The study also further puts forward policy and institutional reform, capacity building and improved knowledge management as essential requisites for making these coastal communities climate risk-resilient and sustainable in the long term.

1. Introduction

      Coastal zones are among the most exploited areas due to their abundant resources. The continuing coastal resource degradation and habitat destruction, pollution, sedimentation and erosion have led to the unsustainable use and exploitation of coastal zones (ADB, 2001). Coupled with weak law enforcement, these problems become more complex as population growth and poverty in coastal communities continue to rise. All these are driving forces towards unsustainability.

      Of increasing importance now is the phenomenon of global climate change, particularly the impact of sea-level rise (SLR), which poses serious risks to the coastal zones, their habitats and resources. While there is mounting concern over these risks in the future, the more urgent problems facing many coastal communities in developing countries like the Philippines are short-term climate variability and extreme (CVE) events. More often, it is the poor who bear most of the adverse effects of these climate hazards, which include tropical cyclones, flooding, loss of coastal lands, coastal erosion, drought and saltwater intrusion. These impoverished groups typically occupy the most marginal land, i.e., coastal lowlands, riverbanks and urban fringes–areas that are not only vulnerable to such climate risks but also to pollution and disease.

      In the Philippines, the issue of CVEs is not high in the development agenda compared to more pressing development concerns such as poverty alleviation, unemployment and environmental degradation. Current responses to extreme climatic events are considered more as disaster preparedness and mitigation opportunities rather than as requisites for much needed, longer-term adaptation (Perez, 2002). Enhancing the capacity of coastal communities to reduce the impacts of CVEs is the most appropriate strategy for increasing their resilience to the drastic impacts of long-term climate change.

      This paper aims to examine the current and future vulnerability to climate variability and change, and sea level rise (SLR), both temporary (or high tide) and accelerated, as well as the adaptive capacity of coastal communities to address climate risks, with the objective of integrating appropriate adaptation and risk management strategies and actions into the existing urban development and sectoral plans of Cavite City within the context of poverty reduction and sustainable development.

      Specifically, the study seeks to identify and examine which socio-economic groups in the coastal population are vulnerable to the impacts of CVEs and temporary SLR (high tide) and why they are vulnerable. It also explores how these vulnerable groups cope, recover and adapt to these threats and how they will likely be affected by long-term climate change. Finally, it suggests ways by which adaptation measures can be mainstreamed into integrated coastal management planning.

      Based on a set of criteria, 11 of the total 35 coastal barangays of Cavite City, were selected as the study areas. These criteria included the diversity of socio-economic conditions, degree of vulnerability to CVEs and SLR (high tide), extent of institutional support, geographic distribution of case study barangays and existence of community/sectoral organizations. This study employed participatory research tools and techniques which included focus group discussions (FGDs), key informant/semi-structured interviews, and consultation workshops, together with family case studies and secondary data gathering. The Adaptation Policy Framework of the United Nations Development Programme (2005) was used as a basis for assessing the current and future climate risks and impacts along with key socio-economic and natural resource and environmental factors that have affected or would affect the vulnerability of the coastal communities as well as the scope of their adaptive practices, measures and capacity. This study also

      looked into aspects of local decision-making processes that pose as potential barriers to and opportunities for mainstreaming and integrating these strategies and actions into the urban development process. This served as basis for developing a local operational framework for vulnerability and adaptation (V & A) assessment and strategy formulation.

      2. CAVITE CITY: AN URBAN COASTAL ECOSYSTEM FACING MULTIPLE ENVIRONMENTAL/CLIMATIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC STRESSES

      2.1 Key Geographic and Physical Characteristics Cavite City is one of the three major cities of Cavite province. It is a hook-shaped peninsula located in the lowland or flat-lying area bordering the already polluted Manila Bay. This city is situated on the northern tip of the province of Cavite and lies approximately 34 km southwest of Manila. It is bounded on the west and southwest by Manila Bay, on the northeast by CaHacao Bay, on the southeast by Bacoor Bay, and on the south by the Municipality of Noveleta (Figure 1). With a total land area of 1,238.63 ha. or 12.386.3 sq. km, the entire city has an almost flat surface, with a slope of 0-3% and no rugged features and rural sections. The city proper is divided into five districts composed of eight Barangay (Village) Zones. Of its total 84 barangays, 35 are categorized as coastal. Being part of the Manila Bay ecosystem, the coastal resources and habitats of the city are reflective of the overall ecological health of the entire bay which is suffering from serious threats caused by overpopulation, pollution discharges from land-based and sea-based sources, overfishing, uncontrolled coastal development and habitat degradation (DENR, 2001).

      2.2 Climate Generally, the climate of Cavite City is relatively dry from the months of December to June and rainy from July to November. Over the past 30 years (1974-2003), Cavite City had a mean rainfall value of 2,010.3 mm (PAGASA, 2004). The time series data on annual rainfall anomalies1 for the same period indicate an over-all trend of decreasing amount of rainfall as shown in Fig. 2 (Sales, 2006). On the other hand, as shown in Fig. 3, the annual mean temperature data for the same time exhibited a fluctuating but generally increasing trend (Sales, 2006).

      2.3 Population In 2003, Cavite City had a total population of 103,936, an increase of 4.6 percent over its population of 99,367 in 2000. It has a relatively large coastal population. Of its 84 barangays, 35 of these (or 41.7 percent) are coastal barangays (villages). From a coastal population of 37,950 (or 40.38 percent of the total) in 1996, it increased invariably in the following years to 50,580 in 2003. As the total city population increased, the share of the coastal population also increased disproportionately over the same period. However, the number of fishermen relative to the total coastal population decreased drastically. This decline is primarily attributed to the generally decreasing municipal fisheries production in Manila Bay over the period from 1980 to 2000 (PEMSEA, 2004), along with its degraded coastal resources and habitats, water pollution and the risks associated with fishing, among other factors.

3. VULNERABILITY OF CAVITE CITY TO IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EXTREME EVENTS

3.1 Climate Variability and Extreme Events A study conducted by PAGASA (2001) of the last fifty years clearly revealed that extreme climate events (ECEs) are inherent components of the Philippine climatic system. These ECEs create natural disasters which cause damage to the country’s economy and the environment and, in many instances, lead to the loss of lives and damage to property. The natural hazards that were traced to these extreme events included storm surges, floods, strong winds and droughts.

3.2 Tropical Cyclone Variability and Storm Surges

      Data from PAGASA (2004) show that 22 tropical cyclones whose centers passed over or were very close to Sangley Point, Cavite City (within a 50 km-radius) occurred over the past 56 years with an average passage of two tropical cyclones (TCs) every five years. These tropical cyclones occurred mostly in the months of November, October and September.

      Records also show that, from 1948 to 2003, a total of 164 tropical cyclones passed through Sangley Point, Cavite City within the 200 km radius, or an average of 3 tropical cyclones per year. Most of these tropical cyclones passed over the area during the months of October, November and July.

      Storm surges occur at the height of tropical cyclones which hit coastal settlements and infrastructure along the shoreline of the city. One documented major storm surge which occurred at the peak of Typhoon Sening on October 10-15, 1970, had an actual height of 3-5 m (PAGASA, 2004).

      FGD results revealed that over the past 30 years, strong typhoons with accompanying storm surges had caused destruction to coastal settlements and infrastructure, resulting in either total or partial damage on these communities and structures. Frequent rains and flooding characterized the 1980s. During this decade, the rainy season appeared to be longer than usual and typhoons varied in frequency and intensity. The decades from the 1990s to the present had also witnessed strong typhoons with strong winds and heavy rains. This latter decade is believed by many to have unpredictable weather patterns.

           3.2.1 Socio-Economic Effects of Tropical Cyclones on the Coastal Population

      Records of the City Social Welfare and Development Office (CSWDO) on the damage assessment of tropical cyclones and other natural calamities are few and limited. Most of the records kept by the CSWDO had been destroyed when the office was flooded. Based on available records, the eight documented tropical cyclones that struck Cavite City from 1994 to 2001 adversely affected an average of 13 barangays and a total of 9,113 families or 39,995 individuals. Relief goods consisting of sardines, noodles and rice were given to the evacuees by the CSWDO. Current estimates of the total daily cost of relief goods for the affected families amount to PhP1,326,905.00.

      Based on the available data for three of the eight tropical cyclones, a total of 49 houses were totally damaged while 668 other houses were partially damaged. No cost estimates for these damages are available.

      The destructive effects of tropical cyclones also took their toll on the livelihoods of the fishers (including their assets such as fish cages/pens and fishing boats) as they could not go fishing for 2-3 consecutive days after their occurrence. Estimates on such losses are not also available.

3.3 Drought

      Data from PAGASA show that over the last three decades, Cavite City, along with other parts of the Southern Tagalog region, was affected by drought in 1968-69, 1982-83, 1987, 1991-93, and 1997-98.

      FGD results revealed that in the 1970s, in the 1990s and until recently, the fish catch of small fishers from Bacoor Bay had been adversely affected by drought or the El Niño phenomenon as they had to fish deeper into the water to be able to catch fish. During dry spells, fishes would normally go to areas where nutrients are bountiful (colder waters). As a whole, fish catch tended to be lower during dry (summer) months than during rainy months. Over the last decade, deep wells which had served as sources of drinking water and for domestic use, were reported to have dried up, thereby affecting the poor coastal households.

3.4 Sea-Level Rise

      Relative sea-level rise (SLR), resulting from both local and global SLR in the bay, may have also caused the slow retention of sediments near the coast. The tidal gauge record at Manila South Harbor showed an overall relative SLR of approximately 0.40 cm/yr from 1901-1950. Compaction of the deltaic segments, under their accumulating weight, may be attributed to the relative SLR during this period. A significant increase in the rate of rise to approximately 2.35 cm/yr took place between 1963 and 1980. This increase is attributed to groundwater withdrawal (DENR, 2000; PEMSEA, 2004), resulting in land subsidence (Rodolfo and Siringan, 2006).

      The decadal changes in annual mean sea level (MSL) of Manila Bay for the periods 1970-79 and 1980-89 were +0.183 m., and +0.142 m., respectively (DENR 2000). For the period 1990-99, it was estimated to be +0.122 m. Shown in Figure 4 is the annual MSL trend in Manila Bay based on the NAMRIA data covering the period 1972-2000, which indicates a gradual increase of 0.90 m over the 29-year period2.

      FGD results showed that in the 1970s, during high tide, the sea level would rise to about 1 meter and would then cause flooding in low-lying barangays. During this decade, the land surface was observed to be higher than the sea level even during high tide. In the 1980s, the tidal level varied and extent of flooding widened in affected barangays. Some perceived that the land surface and sea level were roughly at the same level even during high tide.

      However, as the respondents noted, in the 1990s until about recently, the tidal level had somehow been controlled with the construction of shoreline protection measures such as seawalls, breakwaters and reclamation of coastal lands. Sea level seemed to have risen to a level higher than it was in the previous years or decades.

           3.4.1 Flooding

      The Cavite City Engineer’s Office (CEO) revealed that 39 out of 80 barangays (or 49 percent) of the city are invariably affected by flooding that is caused by the temporary rise in sea-level (high tide), heavy monsoon rains and tropical cyclones. Tidal incursion into settlements normally occur from the months of June to September, but it also happens in the months of December and January with less frequency and adverse effects.

      This problem of flooding is also abetted by high sediment loading and siltation in Manila Bay coupled by the lack of flood control or clogging of drainage systems within the city. Table 1 and Figure 5 show the extent of flooding in barangays caused by tropical cyclones, tidal incursions and heavy monsoon rains. Of the total population of 51,544 comprising the 39 barangays, about 20,150 people (or roughly 39 percent) were disproportionately affected by flooding. This represents about 19 percent of the total city population of 103,936 in 2003.

      Among the eight zones of the city, Zones 2, 8 and 1 had the most number of affected populations, while those of Zones 4 and 5 were the least affected. In terms of the size of affected land area, Zones 8, 1 and 2 accounted for the three largest zones, while Zones 5 and 1 comprised the smallest land areas affected. Most of those affected populations come from the poor sector.

      Based on the FGD results, in the 1970s, flooding in some areas of Bacoor and Manila Bays was frequent with floodwaters rising to a person’s hips and reaching the main road. This coastal flooding also invariably affected the low-lying barangays along Canacao Bay. This situation stretched even into the 1980s. Although frequent rains, high tide and typhoons still persisted in the 1990s and in the early 2000s, coastal flooding was somehow minimized with the construction of seawalls and breakwaters and the improvement of drainage systems. However, some barangays along Cañacao Bay still grappled with such flooding which would rise to as high as one’s knee and last for as long as three days, thereby posing some health risks to the coastal population.

           3.4.2 Saltwater Intrusion

      FGD results indicated that in the 1970s until about early-1980s, the groundwater was of good quality. However, in the late 1980s, its quality had started to deteriorate, with the water now becoming turbid, smelly and salty due to the saltwater intrusion. In the 1990s, at least 7 out of the 11 case study barangays reported such intrusion into the ground water and infrastructure, specifically the potable water system due to flooding and high tide. This problem had forced many coastal families to buy purified or mineral water for drinking. In fact, the City Engineer’s Office admitted the need to raise the existing level of these pipelines to prevent further saltwater intrusion into the system. It is therefore imperative for the LGU to conduct a more in-depth technical study of the actual quality of groundwater to validate these claims.

           3.4.3 Coastal Erosion

      Recent studies have indicated changes in the position of the shoreline along the coast of Manila Bay during the past few years compared with several decades ago. Human-induced progradation of as much as 100m due to the reclamation of the Sangley Point airstrip was observed to have taken place between Cañacao and Sangley Point in Cavite City. The net shoreline change in the Cavite coastline was in the seaward direction, comprising an additional land area of approximately 78.1 m2. The presence of seawalls, breakers and reclaimed areas for settlement development confirmed that such changes were man-made (PEMSEA, 2004).

      As PEMSEA (2004) had noted, the varying changes in depth in the areas within Manila Bay could also be attributed to human activities which include the massive reclamation within the bay in the 1970s for the construction of the Cultural Center of the Philippines (CCP) and its adjoining structures and the siltation and erosion of terrestrial ecosystems.

      FDG results showed that in the 1970s, the coastal zone of Cavite City was relatively stable, sandy and relatively clean, while other parts were rocky and muddy. The decade of the 1980s had witnessed the gradual change of the coastal zone from being mostly sandy into one that started to become silted and mixed with waste and also eroded owing partly to coastal reclamation efforts as mentioned above and the increased urbanization of the city. In the 1990s until recently, domestic waste was strewn under stilted houses mixed up with voluminous mud and silt. A large segment of the shoreline was layered with concrete to stabilize the coastal zone where informal settlements mushroomed.

4. SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES TO ADDRESS CLIMATE RISKS

      4.1 Socio-Economic Vulnerability of Coastal Households

      The major socio-economic groups in the coastal communities of Cavite City are categorized into low-income and the higher-income families. The low-income families have monthly incomes below the poverty threshold (which, as of 2000, was PhP11,605.00 for a family of six) as defined by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB), while the higher-income families are those living above the poverty level.

      The low-income groups are comprised of the small fishers, shellfish growers and micro-entrepreneurs (i.e., the enterprising poor, who are involved in small retail shops, buying and selling dry goods and vending) with small capital assets, the self-employed (i.e., skilled and semi-skilled who comprise the carpenters, painters, plumbers, barbers, jeepney/pedicab drivers, etc.), wage earners and barangay volunteers/officials. On the other hand, higher-income families are mainly comprised of the employed (i.e., permanent fixed monthly income earners and overseas Filipino workers) and micro-entrepreneurs with bigger capital assets.

      In general, both of these low and high-income groups are vulnerable to the climate/disaster risks given the relative location of their settlements–i.e., coastal flatlands and low-lying areas. The latter, however, often live in houses made of durable materials and permanent or semi-permanent structures and situated in more developed settlement areas (e.g., subdivisions) within the coastal zone.

      The impacts of CVEs and SLR (high tide) on small/municipal fishers and shellfish growers include the following: 1) temporary disruption/displacement from their livelihoods, which results in decrease in or no fish catch/shellfish production and/or income; 2) increase in the cost of prime commodities such as fish, vegetables and other agricultural and fishery products; 3) total or partial damage to livelihood and household assets (e.g., fishing boat, fish cage, backyard animals, dwelling units and household properties, etc.); and 4) increased household costs for potable drinking water (resulting from saltwater intrusion of shallow wells). For the poor micro-entrepreneurs and the self-employed, the impacts include: 1) temporary dislocation from economic activities/livelihoods resulting in decrease in sales/profit or income; 2) increase in the prices of prime commodities mentioned earlier; 3) partial damage to livelihood and property (including backyard animals) and 4) increased household budget for potable drink

      ing water. These socio-economic groups have practically no savings and lack access to capital in order to have their damaged houses and assets repaired or restored. Hence, these two groups have ‘moderate to high’ vulnerability to impacts of natural hazards.

      In the case of the employed people and entrepreneurs living above the poverty threshold, the impacts are as follows: 1) minimal to moderate displacement/loss of income from livelihoods; 2) increase in prime commodity prices; and 3) partial/minimal damage to their livelihoods and property. Finally, the better-off families have to deal with a decrease in production and/or income and minimal/insignificant damage to property. These groups have resources (savings or better access to capital) to deal with such impacts. This implies a low to moderate degree of impact on these particular socio-economic groups as compared to poverty groups.

      These findings clearly reveal that the degree of impacts and vulnerability of socio-economic groups to CVEs and SLR vary disproportionately among them. The better-off families have more coping mechanisms than the other socio-economic groups and therefore have a low level of vulnerability. On the other hand, small fishers and shellfish gatherers who bear the highest impact with more damage to livelihood and assets, have poor coping mechanisms and hence, have a higher level of vulnerability to such hazards. The micro-entrepreneurs and employed coastal residents experience relatively damage to livelihood and property, and therefore have a moderate level of vulnerability.

      This analysis implies that the more dependent these poor households are on the natural resource base for their survival, the more vulnerable they are to climate risks. Providing them with sustainable livelihood opportunities, together with technical and financial assistance, will increase their economic resilience and adaptive capacity in the long-term.

      On the other hand, the local government unit (LGU) has implemented a number of planned adaptation strategies to minimize the adverse effects of climate risks on the coastal communities. These include the following: 1) information campaigns/public advisories; 2) relief assistance and evacuation of affected families and individuals; 3) resettlement of vulnerable coastal families; 4) provision of medical assistance to evacuees; and 5) construction of shoreline protection measures (e.g., rockwalls/breakwaters, seawalls). These measures have generally reduced the vulnerability of coastal households to the adverse impacts of CVEs and SLR.

      However, the strategy of relocating affected families to other places (like Trece Martires City) without providing sustainable livelihood opportunities to these families seems to have failed, as many of them eventually returned to Cavite City. Also, the orientation of the seawall in Barangays 36 and 37 obstructs the direct access of fishers to the bay (it takes them about an hour to get out of the structure), and causes sediments and waste to accumulate behind the structure, thereby posing health risks to poor coastal households. All socio-economic groups have adopted a range of adaptation strategies to cope with natural hazards which are shown in Table 2. Most of these coping strategies have both positive and negative effects on these groups.

4.2 Community Assessment of Capacity to Address Climate Hazards

      Overall, results of community assessment of the adequacy of physical resources needed to address effectively the impacts of current and future climate variability and SLR reveal a poor rating. The lack of facilities such as evacuation and health centers, lack of logistical support such as ambulance vans and emergency kits were among the main reasons given. The existence of shoreline protection measures such as seawalls, rockwalls and breakwaters was however widely considered to have reduced their vulnerability to such hazards.

      In terms of human resources, the majority of the communities considered their capacity to be poor. This rating was attributed to the people’s low level of awareness on disaster risk reduction, proper waste management, lack of disaster teams and health personnel and negative attitudes towards evacuation.

      Finally, majority of the communities rated their capacity to provide the needed financial resources to be from poor to fair. This was primarily due to inadequate Calamity Fund allocation, which comprises only 5 percent of the barangay’s Internal Revenue Allocation (IRA).

      Residents of all of the eleven coastal barangays expressed a high degree of concern over the long-term impacts of climate change, particularly tropical cyclones, flooding, and sea-level rise and their associated impacts.

5. VULNERABILITY OF CAVITE CITY COASTAL COMMUNITIES TO FUTURE CLIMATE RISKS

5.1 “Business-as-Usual” Scenario Assumptions on Socio-Economic and Environment and Natural Resource Trends

      This study adopts a set of key assumptions that characterize the social, economic and ecological trends in the future as basis for determining the vulnerability of the coastal communities of Cavite City to long-term impacts of climate change and accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR). These are the following: a) continuously increasing annual population growth rate of 1.5 percent; b) slow and fragmented economic growth and technological change; c) lack of significant gains in reversing the current trend of natural resource degradation and depletion; and, d) lack of significant policy and institutional reforms for enhancing local adaptive capacity to address climate variability and change and ASLR.

5.2 Assessing Future Climate Risks

           5.2.1 Typhoons and Extreme Climate Events

      In the context of the latest projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC (2007), PAGASA revealed that as a consequence of human-induced climate change, and in light of its aforementioned study on ECEs, there will be an increase in intensity of rainfall events and also in mean and peak rainfall intensities from tropical cyclones in the future.

           5.2.2 Accelerated Sea-Level Rise and Increased Flooding

      Given the above context, this study attempts to characterize future sea-level rise (SLR) based on existing scientific studies. These studies include the Philippine Country Study on Climate Change, which involved a vulnerability and adaptation (V &A) study on the coastal zones of Manila Bay. Under this project, an SLR Vulnerability Map was jointly prepared by the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) and PAGASA. The sea-level scenarios used were 0.3 m and 1.0 m to represent the low and high scenarios of IPCC, and a 2.0 m accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR) as a worst-case scenario. The findings revealed that the Manila Bay area is vulnerable to SLR from both the physical and socio-economic viewpoints. Most areas along the coast, including Cavite City, will become vulnerable to a 1-m ASLR.

      Through this research, the SLR map showing the potential areas vulnerable to a 1-m. ASLR was validated, while additional information from key informants were also considered.

      Under this future scenario, a total land area of 387 has. of mainland Cavite City would be prone to such a risk. This area would cover Sangley Point and Fort San Felipe, two important government military facilities, which have a combined land area of 230 has. The aggregate area represents an increase from the 10 percent (or 65 has.) of the total land area currently affected by flooding to about 60 percent of mainland Cavite City. In terms of affected population, it is likely to increase significantly from the current 19 percent of the city population, assuming a continuous population increase over time.

      Clearly, the impacts of an ASLR on the coastal zone of Cavite City will not be limited to the natural environment, the existing infrastructure and human settlements. Of equal importance are its potentially adverse effects on the livelihoods of the most vulnerable coastal families, i.e., the municipal fisherfolk and shellfish gatherers and other poverty groups.

      It is estimated that the city government will spend PhP2.47 million per barangay or approximately Php207 million for the construction and/or rehabilitation of existing drainage systems for the entire 84 barangays of the city.

           5.2.3 Other Associated Impacts and Costs

      Given the projected 1-m. ASLR, its consequent effects of coastal erosion, flooding, and saltwater intrusion are expected to adversely affect the coastal zone of mainland Cavite City. These problems will cause significant loss of coastal lands and brackish water and estuarine resources for fishpond/aquaculture development (which has a total area of 35 has.) and further degrade the quality of groundwater resources for drinking purposes.

      To prevent or minimize these impacts, the construction of shoreline protection structures would cost the city government an estimated amount of Php106,000.00 per cubic meter (/m3) for such structure. To build a 1-km long structure, the LGU will spend a total of Php106 million at current prices. It is worth noting that the present structures which extend about 2 km along Manila Bay have taken the LGU about 15 years to build.

6. MAINSTREAMING COMMUNITY-BASED ADAPTATION STRATEGIES INTO THE INTEGRATED COASTAL MANAGEMENT PROCESS

6.1 Coastal Adaptation Measures as Proposed by Local Stakeholders

      The local stakeholders from the local government and communities have identified a range of proposed adaptive strategies and actions to address the impacts of coastal hazards, which are presented in Table 3.

      Most of the adaptation strategies identified by the local stakeholders involve capacity-enhancing measures, which are non-structural in nature. These options basically involve the crafting, enhancement and strict implementation of relevant national laws, e.g., delineation of municipal fishing waters under the Fisheries Code Republic Act 8550; calamity fund allocation under RA 8185; issuance of building permits consistent with the Philippine Building Code (Presidential Decree 1096); identification of socialized housing sites and their integration into land-use plans and zoning ordinances under the Urban Development and Housing Act (RA 7279) fines and penalties established under these laws; regulation as contained in local ordinances (e.g., land use and zoning); and programs (e.g., relief and disaster risk reduction, alternative livelihood and ecological waste management). Information, education and communication (IEC) activities are viewed by many stakeholders as critical to enhancing the adaptive capacity of

      stakeholders as they entail positive attitudinal changes among individuals, groups and institutions.

6.2 Mainstreaming Community-Based Adaptation Strategies into the Integrated Coastal Management Process

      The concept of integrated coastal management (ICM), also referred to as coastal resource management (CRM), has been considered as the most appropriate framework for addressing current and long-term coastal zone management issues, including increasing poverty, loss of coastal habitats and resources, degradation of water quality, and adaptation to SLR and other impacts of global climate change. It is also a means for involving key stakeholders in identifying and anticipating future opportunities at the local/community level (Perez, 2003; Cabrido, 1999). Hence, ICM is a key instrument in achieving sustainable development in coastal areas.

      To facilitate the incorporation of community-based adaptation strategies into the ICM process, an operational framework showing its different components, processes/activities and expected outputs is presented in Figure 7.

7. THE WAY FORWARD: TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION-SENSITIVE INTEGRATED COASTAL MANAGEMENT
From the findings of this study, it is evident that, although there is a lack of baseline technical and scientific data, the coastal ecosystem and communities of Cavite City have been threatened and adversely affected in varying degrees by climate risks at least over the past three decades. Undoubtedly, the impacts of current CVEs and SLR–i.e., tropical cyclones, coastal flooding, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion and drought–are not confined to the natural environment and ecosystems alone but are now being felt by the human communities, particularly in 39 (or 46%) of the 84 barangays of the city. These impacts will worsen in the light of the continuing coastal resource and habitat degradation in Manila Bay. Among the various socio-economic groups in these communities, the poor coastal families specifically, the small fishers and shellfish gatherers, including women, are the most vulnerable, followed by the enterprising poor and the self-employed.

     The vulnerability of coastal households and ecosystems to current and future climate risks is underpinned by several causes and dimensions. The causes are not solely climatic in nature but are also abetted by an interplay of social, economic, technological and institutional factors. While the autonomous and planned adaptation measures adopted by local communities and the LGU respectively have contributed positively to reducing the vulnerability of these communities, these are inadequate and costly for current climate risks.
Given a future projection of worsening impacts of long-term climate change and accelerated SLR under a “business as usual” scenario, the most appropriate strategy to increase community resilience is to mainstream adaptation and risk management strategies into ICM that promotes community and multi-stakeholder participation. To achieve this, the following key recommendations must be pursued:

Policy and Institutional Reform
• Undertake “climate proofing” of existing LGU development policies, plans and programs as well as their corresponding structures and financing mechanisms (including the Calamity Fund allocation), particularly those for disaster risk reduction and fishery and coastal resource management to achieve greater synergy and positive outcomes;
• Develop and implement a clear LGU ICM policy and plan that integrate land and sea-use zoning, alternative livelihood development (including micro-finance/insurance), disaster/climate risk management and ecological waste management;
• Evaluate associated benefits and costs of existing and proposed structural and non-structural adaptation/risk management options and prioritize these according to sustainability criteria and standards;

Local Capacity Development
• Build individual, community and institutional capacities in the integration of adaptation strategies into ICM, specifically in the following areas: 1) information, education and communication (IEC) of key local stakeholders–the LGU, civil society, the academe and the private sector; 2) participatory risk, vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment, planning, implementation and evaluation; 3) development and management of community-based projects in coastal resource management, alternative livelihood development, disaster/climate risk management and ecological waste management; 4) creation of a multi-sectoral body for CCA-sensitive ICM planning and implementation; 5) crafting and enforcement of appropriate laws, policies and ordinances on disaster/climate risk management.
• Build partnerships between the LGU and NGOs, local academic and research institutions, particularly in the areas of community organizing and mobilization and participatory risk, vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments;

Knowledge Management
• Establish community-based monitoring and surveillance systems to measure bio-physical and socio-economic changes in the coastal areas including erosion patterns, coastal currents, tides, land use, population and migration patterns, that will form part of a comprehensive database that will serve as input to V&A assessment and planning and the setting-up of a community early warning system;
• Conduct further research to advance understanding of the linkages between vulnerability, adaptation and disaster/climate risk management, with specific focus on the following: 1) socio-economic effects/impacts and costs of disaster/climate risks; 2) linkages between poverty, vulnerability and gender concerns; and 3) documentation, sharing and promotion of traditional knowledge and practices which enhance adaptation.

Paper submitted for presentation at the EEPSEA Conference on Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Policy Response in Southeast Asia, February 13-15, 2008, Bali, Indonesia. The author is Assistant Director, Conrado Benitez Institute for Sustainability (CBIS), Philippine Rural Reconstruction Movement (PRRM) and Convenor, Philippine Network on Climate Change (PNCC); Email: ramonfms@yahoo.com