HALAL analysis: May 10 automated election has 25% probability of success as of March 8
On March 8, Smartmatic came out with full-page ads in several national newspapers, claiming that the Automated Election System (AES) project they are implementing for the Philippine government have the people’s vote of confidence.
We at Halalang Marangal sat down to discuss the ad and realized that all the information contained there, analyzed carefully and taken together, actually meant that as of March 8, the AES probability of success had become unacceptably low. We even tried to be generous in our assessment, and gave the company some benefit of the doubt (where it was possible to do so!), but the numbers still led to a low probability of success.
That parenthetical comment was necessary because I found it incredible that Smartmatic would claim successful field tests and mock elections when media had reported many cases of rejected ballots and transmission problems even in Metro Manila. If Smartmatic can blatantly lie about this in public, then it can lie about anything. Smartmatic has also imposed a blackout on statistics about the scanning accuracy of its machines.
March 8, 2014, Cocoon Boutique Hotel
Quezon City, Philippines